Figures... I buy a Titan and then I hear on the radio this morning they expect gas prices to be about $2 per gallon in MD this summer. :jester: Ridiculous... I'm glad I have several other vehicles that get over 40 mpg, that's for sure. 
Gas prices on their way back up... :(
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If I had a nickel for every time someone on the news has cried doomsday for gas prices, and then had their "predictions" be completely false....
Sure, gas prices will go up eventually, but don't get too caught up in the doomsday thing.
Sure, gas prices will go up eventually, but don't get too caught up in the doomsday thing.
While there is disagreement among energy analysts about the worldwide supply of crude oil (has it alread peaked? will it peak in the next 10 years?), there does seem to be consensus on these 2 points : world wide demand for crude oil is increasing (because of rapid industrial development in countries such as China), and extraction of crude oil is becoming more expensive. Both of these factors will lead to increasing gas prices.Half Shovel said:
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Here is a Wall Street Journal Article about rising prices. One analyst predicted over $2 for regular.
"US May See Record Gasoline Prices Again At Pumps In '04
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
(This article was originally published Thursday)
By Terin Miller
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK -- Price spikes to new record highs at U.S. gasoline pumps are likely again this year as Congress and some states continue wrangling over blending specifications for the fuel, energy analysts said this week.
The strengthening U.S. economy, tight commercial crude oil inventories and the possibility that cold weather could prevent the normal building of gasoline stocks by summer also have prompted large, speculative funds to bet on continuing high gasoline prices, analysts said.
"The effect of an improving economy, better consumer confidence, and a feeling that we're at least so far protecting ourselves from terrorist attack will lead to record strong demand this summer," said Phil Flynn, an analyst who trades with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.
Large, speculative funds added to their net long position in gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange during the week ended Jan. 6, boosting it to 41,707 contracts from 39,000 a week earlier, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest commitment of traders report. Front-month Nymex gasoline futures rose 1.63 cents a gallon from the previous week, to 96.55 cents on Jan. 6.
By Monday, front-month gasoline futures had risen to nearly $1.03 a gallon, while gasoline for April delivery traded near $1.06 a gallon. Those futures shed between 6 and 10 cents by Thursday, however, after the U.S. Department of Energy reported a healthy 2.1-million-barrel increase in U.S. gasoline inventories for the week ended Jan. 9.
At the pumps, U.S. gasoline prices averaged $1.56 a gallon Monday after rising 5 cents in the past week, said the DOE's Energy Information Administration statistics branch.
Last summer, average retail prices for regular gasoline in the U.S. rose 26 cents a gallon over two months to an all-time record high of $1.75 a gallon in August.
This year, analysts expect gasoline prices will soar again to record highs, and demand for the fuel this summer will set a new record, they said.
The EIA's latest short-term energy outlook, released last week, forecasts a U.S. average pump price for gasoline of $1.57 a gallon during April and May, but prices already have touched that level this week.
"It's more than likely that the forecast is going to be revised up in subsequent months," said EIA senior oil market analyst Doug MacIntyre.
The EIA noted Wednesday that it based its price forecast on crude oil prices of about $30 a barrel - or about $4 to $5 less per barrel than this week's prices. That could add 10-12 cents a gallon to the EIA's forecast for April-May retail gasoline prices if oil prices remain at current levels, the EIA said Wednesday.
A probe into record-setting prices in 2003 led the EIA to conclude that "a chronically tight supply-demand balance and increasingly complex product specifications mean that there is a continuing vulnerability to future gasoline price spikes."
New Regulations Seen Lifting Prices
Methyl tertiary butyl ether, a gasoline additive, once was seen as a solution to clean-air concerns. But new environmental concerns about MTBE's potential contamination of water supplies has resulted in some states banning the additive.
As of Jan. 1, California, New York and Connecticut prohibited the use of MTBE as an oxygenate in gasoline blending. At least 14 other states are in the process of trying to phase out MTBE use, with bans potentially taking effect by 2005, according to the Renewable Fuels Association, an ethanol trade group.
Congressional debate last year failed to bring approval for an energy bill that, in part, would require that ethanol be used nationwide as an oxygenate in gasoline to replace MTBE. Opponents argued that oxygenates are no longer needed since engines have become more efficient, and that the ethanol mandate would merely be a farm subsidy lacking real merit.
Amid the differing standards for gasoline blending, the New York Mercantile Exchange - home to the nation's only gasoline futures market - has decided to use the New Jersey standard, which still allows the use of MTBE in gasoline, for fuel physically delivered against its gasoline futures contract.
California gasoline production capacity was reduced in 2003 by refiners' early switch from using MTBE to ethanol. The switch also contributed to the summer price spikes, according to EIA.
"Whenever you have a major area - New York or California - change the type of gasoline they're using, history tells us sometimes that transition is not as smooth as we might have hoped," MacIntyre said.
Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline demand in August 2003 increased by 200,000 barrels a day, or 2%, over demand in July to reach 9.4 million barrels a day, an all-time monthly record, EIA said.
In states replacing MTBE with ethanol, a different kind of refined gasoline known as reformulated gasoline blend stock, or RBOB, is needed. Unlike with the MTBE additive, which can be mixed into reformulated gasoline at the refinery, RBOB must be blended with ethanol at the terminal to produce reformulated gasoline. That's because ethanol has an affinity for water and the potential to separate from the RBOB in shipment.
Areas using RBOB and ethanol are likely to pass on to consumers some of the increased cost of shipping two products instead of one, analysts said.
The potential for regional supply problems this year means a person's location may be the primary factor in how much one pays for gasoline, said Bill O'Grady, an analyst with A.G. Edwards.
"I don't know how we can avoid some spot shortages somewhere," he said.
In addition to MTBE bans, the EPA's rules for Tier II Motor Vehicle Emissions Standards implemented in 2000 include a required reduction in gasoline sulfur content. The requirements are being phased in over time, with the corporate pool average having to be 120 parts per million beginning Jan. 1 this year and the per-gallon cap falling from 300 ppm to 80 ppm by 2006 for corporate and refinery averages.
EIA senior analyst Joanne Shore said little impact on prices has been noticeable so far from the new sulfur requirements.
"But it adds to a picture that can increase the probability of price spikes," she said, because some exporters won't be able to meet the U.S. requirements.
Such difficulty for gasoline exporters could limit sources of supply for U.S. pumps, but it's "being done at a benefit of cleaner air," Shore said."
-----------------------------------------
"US May See Record Gasoline Prices Again At Pumps In '04
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
(This article was originally published Thursday)
By Terin Miller
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK -- Price spikes to new record highs at U.S. gasoline pumps are likely again this year as Congress and some states continue wrangling over blending specifications for the fuel, energy analysts said this week.
The strengthening U.S. economy, tight commercial crude oil inventories and the possibility that cold weather could prevent the normal building of gasoline stocks by summer also have prompted large, speculative funds to bet on continuing high gasoline prices, analysts said.
"The effect of an improving economy, better consumer confidence, and a feeling that we're at least so far protecting ourselves from terrorist attack will lead to record strong demand this summer," said Phil Flynn, an analyst who trades with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.
Large, speculative funds added to their net long position in gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange during the week ended Jan. 6, boosting it to 41,707 contracts from 39,000 a week earlier, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest commitment of traders report. Front-month Nymex gasoline futures rose 1.63 cents a gallon from the previous week, to 96.55 cents on Jan. 6.
By Monday, front-month gasoline futures had risen to nearly $1.03 a gallon, while gasoline for April delivery traded near $1.06 a gallon. Those futures shed between 6 and 10 cents by Thursday, however, after the U.S. Department of Energy reported a healthy 2.1-million-barrel increase in U.S. gasoline inventories for the week ended Jan. 9.
At the pumps, U.S. gasoline prices averaged $1.56 a gallon Monday after rising 5 cents in the past week, said the DOE's Energy Information Administration statistics branch.
Last summer, average retail prices for regular gasoline in the U.S. rose 26 cents a gallon over two months to an all-time record high of $1.75 a gallon in August.
This year, analysts expect gasoline prices will soar again to record highs, and demand for the fuel this summer will set a new record, they said.
The EIA's latest short-term energy outlook, released last week, forecasts a U.S. average pump price for gasoline of $1.57 a gallon during April and May, but prices already have touched that level this week.
"It's more than likely that the forecast is going to be revised up in subsequent months," said EIA senior oil market analyst Doug MacIntyre.
The EIA noted Wednesday that it based its price forecast on crude oil prices of about $30 a barrel - or about $4 to $5 less per barrel than this week's prices. That could add 10-12 cents a gallon to the EIA's forecast for April-May retail gasoline prices if oil prices remain at current levels, the EIA said Wednesday.
A probe into record-setting prices in 2003 led the EIA to conclude that "a chronically tight supply-demand balance and increasingly complex product specifications mean that there is a continuing vulnerability to future gasoline price spikes."
New Regulations Seen Lifting Prices
Methyl tertiary butyl ether, a gasoline additive, once was seen as a solution to clean-air concerns. But new environmental concerns about MTBE's potential contamination of water supplies has resulted in some states banning the additive.
As of Jan. 1, California, New York and Connecticut prohibited the use of MTBE as an oxygenate in gasoline blending. At least 14 other states are in the process of trying to phase out MTBE use, with bans potentially taking effect by 2005, according to the Renewable Fuels Association, an ethanol trade group.
Congressional debate last year failed to bring approval for an energy bill that, in part, would require that ethanol be used nationwide as an oxygenate in gasoline to replace MTBE. Opponents argued that oxygenates are no longer needed since engines have become more efficient, and that the ethanol mandate would merely be a farm subsidy lacking real merit.
Amid the differing standards for gasoline blending, the New York Mercantile Exchange - home to the nation's only gasoline futures market - has decided to use the New Jersey standard, which still allows the use of MTBE in gasoline, for fuel physically delivered against its gasoline futures contract.
California gasoline production capacity was reduced in 2003 by refiners' early switch from using MTBE to ethanol. The switch also contributed to the summer price spikes, according to EIA.
"Whenever you have a major area - New York or California - change the type of gasoline they're using, history tells us sometimes that transition is not as smooth as we might have hoped," MacIntyre said.
Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline demand in August 2003 increased by 200,000 barrels a day, or 2%, over demand in July to reach 9.4 million barrels a day, an all-time monthly record, EIA said.
In states replacing MTBE with ethanol, a different kind of refined gasoline known as reformulated gasoline blend stock, or RBOB, is needed. Unlike with the MTBE additive, which can be mixed into reformulated gasoline at the refinery, RBOB must be blended with ethanol at the terminal to produce reformulated gasoline. That's because ethanol has an affinity for water and the potential to separate from the RBOB in shipment.
Areas using RBOB and ethanol are likely to pass on to consumers some of the increased cost of shipping two products instead of one, analysts said.
The potential for regional supply problems this year means a person's location may be the primary factor in how much one pays for gasoline, said Bill O'Grady, an analyst with A.G. Edwards.
"I don't know how we can avoid some spot shortages somewhere," he said.
In addition to MTBE bans, the EPA's rules for Tier II Motor Vehicle Emissions Standards implemented in 2000 include a required reduction in gasoline sulfur content. The requirements are being phased in over time, with the corporate pool average having to be 120 parts per million beginning Jan. 1 this year and the per-gallon cap falling from 300 ppm to 80 ppm by 2006 for corporate and refinery averages.
EIA senior analyst Joanne Shore said little impact on prices has been noticeable so far from the new sulfur requirements.
"But it adds to a picture that can increase the probability of price spikes," she said, because some exporters won't be able to meet the U.S. requirements.
Such difficulty for gasoline exporters could limit sources of supply for U.S. pumps, but it's "being done at a benefit of cleaner air," Shore said."
-----------------------------------------
stevnmd said:Figures... I buy a Titan and then I hear on the radio this morning they expect gas prices to be about $2 per gallon in MD this summer. :jester: Ridiculous... I'm glad I have several other vehicles that get over 40 mpg, that's for sure.
I heard on the news again today, that in California we should not be surprised if gas hits $3 a gallon this summer. This does not seem to be wild eyed speculation, but is instead based on predicitions by pros in the oil business. The Oil Price Information Service (opisnet.com) seems to have some authoritative analysis on this, and are predicting a 40% increase in the price of crude by this summer.
Filling a Titan with gas will be a painfull experience, but that will be neutralized somewhat by the huge rebates that the auto manufacturers will be forced to offer, in order to move big pickup trucks and big SUVs off their dealer's lots.
Filling a Titan with gas will be a painfull experience, but that will be neutralized somewhat by the huge rebates that the auto manufacturers will be forced to offer, in order to move big pickup trucks and big SUVs off their dealer's lots.
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If people would not use dino fuels to keep warm in the winter gas prices would be lower. Everyone up north, turn those t'stats down below 50!
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